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Latest Issue № 5, 2019



Archive / 2019

№ 4

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ECONOMIC SOCIOLOGY

pdfAlexander ABRAMOV, Alexander RADYGIN, Maria CHERNOVA
8-48

Abstract

The paper discusses the key problems of information transparency of mutual funds which impede their development in the domestic financial market. In Russia, open-end mutual funds have not yet fulfilled their potential for retail investors. Earning the trust of private investors for them is complicated by a lot of unsolved problems. The most severe ones relate to the level of transparency and accessibility of information. We analyze some restrictions imposed on efficiency evaluation of equity funds by their investments in foreign financial instruments, the weakness of the benchmarks, and non-transparent information about the investment strategies. The multifactor asset pricing model tailored to the domestic stock market was used as an additional method of evaluating risks and returns of the equity funds. We rationalize that these models allow for internationally standardized analysis of fund performance and can identify fundamental factors which generate sustainable excess return. Our study revealed significant exposure of excess return of the funds to the broad market index and the small-cap equity premium. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the significance of the factor models for fund returns has tended to decline as a result of an increase of foreign assets share in fund portfolios and outfl ows of foreign investors from the Russian stock market. Using different examples of portfolio composition from the equity funds, we show that, under certain conditions, some methods of portfolio rebalancing combined with information on past performance allow investors to gain an excess return.

Keywords:asset pricing model, CAPM, growth stocks, value stocks, momentum, stock liquidity, foreign portfolio investors, factor investing, financial market, mutual funds.

JEL:D53, E44, G11, G12, G17, G23.

Alexander E. Abramov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Alexander D. Radygin, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3–5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation).

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Maria I. Chernova. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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MONEY AND CREDIT

pdfAnna PESTOVA, Mikhail MAMONOV, Natalia ROSTOVA
48-75
 

Abstract

This section conducts an estimate of the impulse response function of key macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks in Russia. The estimates are carried out through a dynamic factor model (DFM) of the Russian economy with structural identification of shocks by imposing various sets of sign restrictions on the behavior of endogenous variables. We restricted first the monetary aggregate M2 only (a decrease in response to an increase of the Key rate), and then—simultaneously—M2, real effective exchange rate (an increase), and GDP (a decrease). We estimated the DFM using a large dataset of 58 macroeconomic and financial variables. The estimation results suggest that there is no decreasing response of consumer prices to an exogenous tightening of the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of Russia. This empirical evidence is supported implicitly by DFM-based predictions that under the imposition of such a decreasing response as an identifying restriction to the model, a positive interest rate shock is not transmitted through the interest rate channel of monetary policy to expected increases of the interest rates on commercial loans and private deposits. However, existing empirical evidence refutes this model-based result. Therefore, this study supports the view according to which a tightening of monetary policy in Russia is inefficient in terms of restraining inflation. In addition, monetary policy shocks negatively affect investments, retail sales, export and import, real wages, and employment. Different economic activities react differently to monetary policy shocks: exportoriented activities are not sensitive to these shocks, whereas domestic pro-cyclical activities (e.g. construction) can be substantially depressed in response to unexpected increases of interest rates. Finally, the expectations of economic agents are also significantly affected by shocks in the interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia.

Keywords:monetary policy, dynamic factor model (DFM), principal component analysis, structural identifi cation, monetary policy shocks.

JEL:E31, E43, E51, E58.

Anna A. Pestova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Laboratory for Analysis and Forecast of Economic Processes, National Research University Higher School of Economics (20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation); CERGE-EI, Charles University (Politických vězňů 7, 111 21, Prague 1, Czech Republic).

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Mikhail E. Mamonov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Laboratory for Analysis and Forecast of Economic Processes, National Research University Higher School of Economics (20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation); CERGE-EI, Charles University (Politických vězňů 7, 111 21 Prague 1, Czech Republic).

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Natalia A. Rostova. LUISS Guido Carli (Viale Romania, 32, 00197 Rome, Italy).

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ECONOMIC SOCIOLOGY

pdfAlexander AUZAN, Alexey KOMISSAROV, Asiia BAKHTIGARAEVA
76-95
 

Abstract

The innovation process involves not only inventive activity, but also successful commercialization of inventions. While the inventive potential in Russia was and remains at a fairly high level, when it comes to the promotion of new products to the market, Russian innovators usually have difficulties. Such a paradox can be associated with various factors: geographical conditions and the availability of natural resources, political factors, as well as socio-economic and institutional factors. This article focuses on the sociocultural factor as a constraint to successful commercialization of innovations in Russia. In addition to a theoretical review of the problems, the results of in-depth interviews conducted in 2015–2016 are presented. During the interview, three groups of innovation process participants/potential participants were interviewed, namely representatives of the scientific and inventive environment, the business environment, and the development institute specially created by the state to support the commercialization of scientific developments (“Skolkovo”). The sample included respondents from Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, and Penza. According to the survey, the commercialization of innovations in Russia can be limited by significant differences in the values of scientists/inventors and business, low level of trust, paternalism, the “win-lose” ideology, and negative attitude to innovations in the society. In addition, the article raises the question of transforming sociocultural constraints into a set of potentials depending on socio-economic conditions and development goals, and discusses the possibility of applying the results of sociocultural studies in carrying out reforms.

Keywords: commercialization of innovations, entrepreneurship, sociocultural characteristics, innovative development of Russia.

JEL: О310, О330, Z130, Z190.

Alexander A. Auzan,Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University (1–46, Leninskiegory, Moscow, 119234, Russian Federation); Institute for National Projects (98–3, Lobachevskogo ul., Moscow, 119607, Russian Federation).

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Alexey G. Komissarov. Graduate School of Public Administration, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Asiia I. Bakhtigaraeva. Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University (1–46, Leninskie gory, Moscow, 119234, Russian Federation); Institute for National Projects (98–3, Lobachevskogo ul., Moscow, 119607, Russian Federation).

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LABOR ECONOMICS

pdfVictor LYASHOK, Marina LOPATINA
96-119
 

Abstract

The paper discusses the real wage elasticity to unemployment and GDP in Russia. An approach based on panel microdata about earnings of individuals has been applied. This methodology helps to avoid a number of difficulties that are created when aggregated analytical data on the average wage dynamics are used. The study has indicated some conclusions. Firstly, a review of estimations from other countries based on the same methodology is provided. The results confirm the conclusion about higher wage elasticity to unemployment in Russia than in many developed countries. However, the real wage elasticity to GDP in Russia is comparable with the same elasticity in other countries. Secondly, the use of microdata facilitates the evaluation of real wage flexibility for particular groups of workers and for different types of jobs: in other words, the heterogeneity of wage flexibility. As shown by calculations, wage flexibility is higher for young men living in the city and working in the private or informal sector of the economy. Moreover, it was found that wage flexibility of workers who have changed jobs during the year is higher than that of those who have remained with the same employer. Thus, interfirm mobility contributes to high wage flexibility in Russia: during economic growth employees, on average, newly start better paid jobs, whereas during crises they switch to low-paid jobs.

Keywords:real wage flexibility, real wage cyclicality, labor force mobility, unemployment level, business cycles.

JEL: J30, O57.

Victor Yu. Lyashok. Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 117517, Russian Federation); National Research University Higher School of Economics (20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation); Financial Research Institute (3/2, Nastas’inskiy per., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation).

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Marina V. Lopatina. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 117517, Russian Federation); National Research University Higher School of Economics (20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation).

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COMMUNICATION ECONOMICS

pdfAndrey SHASTITKO, Natalia PAVLOVA
120-141
 

Abstract

Based on the features of modern mobile services, we propose conceptual approaches to determining the boundaries of the retail market for these services in the context of antitrust law application. Taking into account the survey of consumers of mobile services conducted in 2018, we explain the sources of the complexity of mobile services on the demand side. Additionally, we address the grounds for the complexity of services on the supply side. Two key analytical approaches to the study of the mobile services market are revealed: the concept of cluster markets and the definition of market boundaries through bundles. Summarizing foreign experience in analyzing cluster markets and markets for bundles allowed us to formulate a number of criteria, based on which conclusions about the correct boundaries of product markets in mobile communications can be drawn. Verification of compliance with such criteria on the basis of the survey, as well as on the basis of other data about the industry, suggests that the relevant product markets are bundles represented by tariff plans. Communication services in intranet roaming should also be analyzed only in conjunction with other elements of tariff plans. Isolation of individual components for the purpose of their separate analysis can lead to errors, including ignoring the fact that the prices of elements within a bundle are set based on the need to ensure the desired level of profitability of the entire bundle as a whole, rather than the profitability of individual components.

Keywords: antitrust, market definition, cluster markets, bundling, mobile communications, intranet roaming.

JEL: K21.

Andrey Ye. Shastitko, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Lomonosov Moscow State University (1–46, Leninskie gory, GSP-1, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation); Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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Natalia S. Pavlova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Lomonosov Moscow State University (1–46, Leninskie gory, GSP-1, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation); Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

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pdfDmitrii TRUBNIKOV
142-165
 

Abstract

The large-scale reformation of various economic industries, which took place in developed countries at the end of the last century, is very oft en perceived as “liberalization” or “deregulation”. Meanwhile, there are robust reasons to argue that this terminology does not fit correctly the nature of the real transformation. Moreover, the newly formed system is often described in modern literature in such terms as “managed competition” or “regulatory capitalism”, and this system highly relies on various forms of government interventions in the market process, which makes the environment incompatible with the proclaimed values of neoliberalism. The analysis of the actual processes from the point of view of private interest theories of regulation allows one to conclude that the real objectives of the new regulatory environment were rather the suppression of market mechanisms and the curbing of the creative destruction process, than the development of market institutions as was proclaimed in the offi cial documents. Moreover, it is important to take into account that the scientifi c discussion also off ered an alternative to the chosen methods. It could be based on the views of the Austrian school of economics, which understands competition in a diff erent manner than the neoclassical mainstream does. However, this alternative was widely ignored by the reformers. This study focuses on the European telecommunications sector. The history of its reformation allows one to see in details how, under the guise of market liberalization, the reforms created a new regulatory regime that was aimed at restriction of market forces. Th e research uses the approaches of the Austrian school, as well as those of the Virginia school of political economy which formed the main postulates of public choice theory, according to which government interventions are mainly explained by private interests of powerful actors.

Keywords:telecommunications, deregulation, public choice theory, Austrian school of economics, competitive order, managed competition.

JEL: L96, B53, L51.

Dmitrii А. Trubnikov, PhD (Law), Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Institute of Economics and Management, Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University (14, A. Nevskogo ul., Kaliningrad, 236016, Russian Federation); Tilburg Institute for Law, Technology, and Society (TILT), Tilburg University (P. O. Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands).

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pdfSvetlana GOLOVANOVA, Dina KORNEEVA, Elena SIDOROVA, Gyuzel YUSUPOVA
166-193
 

Abstract

This article is devoted to quantitative analysis of the costs and benefi ts of 5G network infrastructure creation using two alternative forms, namely a single wholesale network or competing mobile networks. Calculations based on the discounting principle allowed us to establish whether savingsare possible in the single wholesale network model. The limit of investment savings due to the use of a single wholesale network is estimated at 160–220 billion rubles covering a five-year period, given 360–480 billion rubles of investments required by four mobile operators. This estimation is optimistic and based on the assumption that a single wholesale network creates infrastructure none the worse than each of the four competing mobile networks, the expenditures of infrastructure development being not higher than those of the active mobile networks. We show that an infrastructure sharing agreements between mobile operators on a voluntary basis makes it possible to achieve a comparable amount of savings of 148–197 billion rubles for a five-year period. Taking into account the estimates of additional costs in the single wholesale network model caused by delay in implementation, an increase of market power, and regulatory costs, we conclude that the model of single wholesale network is economically inefficient.

Keywords: competition, single wholesale network, telecommunications, 5G, investment.

JEL: L12, L96.

Svetlana V. Golovanova, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Institute for Industrial and Market Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics (28/11, Shabolovka ul., 119049, Moscow, Russian Federation); National Research University Higher School of Economics — Nizhny Novgorod (25/12, Bol’shaya Pecherskaya ul., Nizhny Novgorod, 603155, Russian Federation).

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Dina V. Korneeva, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Institute for Industrial and Market Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics (28/11, Shabolovka ul., 119049, Moscow, Russian Federation); National Research University Higher School of Economics — Nizhny Novgorod (25/12, Bol’shaya Pecherskaya ul., Nizhny Novgorod, 603155, Russian Federation).

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Elena E. Sidorova. Institute for Industrial and Market Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics (28/11, Shabolovka ul., Moscow, 119049, Russian Federation).

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Gyuzel F. Yusupova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor. Institute for Industrial and Market Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics (28/11, Shabolovka ul., Moscow, 119049, Russian Federation).

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TRANSPORT ECONOMICS

pdfDmitry GORDEEV, Georgy IDRISOV
194-219
 

Abstract

The rail freight market is one of the most important sectors of the Russian economy. From year to year there has been evidence of inefficiency of rail freight regulation rules: shippers prefer to use alternative types of transport for goods with high added value, decreasing revenues of OAO “RZD” (Russian Railways) and limiting its investment program. To create conditions for development, there have beendiscussions about directions of reforms needed in the rail freight sector. Market players like OAO “RZD”, the government, and shippers have been putting forward their own optimal market schemes, but mainly they are controversial. In this paper, the authors propose a vector for further development of an optimal rail freight market model, which would take into account interests of all market players. At the first stage, we evaluated elasticities of demand for rail freight transportation for different types of goods. At the second stage, we measured levels of rail freight tariffs in Russia and compared them with the theoretical optimal level according to the Ramsey rule. With maximum public welfare taken as the optimal criteria, directions for further development of tariff s for the medium to long term have been identified. According to our estimates, the present tariff system leads to 0.2% of GDP welfare being lost annually. The new tariff system would ensure a 4–6% increase in freight volumes by decreasing the average level of tariffs. This tariff system can be applied as part of rail freight regulation improvements.

Dmitry S. Gordeev, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Russian Foreign Trade Academy (6А, Vorob’evskoe shosse, Moscow, 119285, Russian Federation).

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Georgy I. Idrisov, Doc. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3–5, Gazetnyy per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).

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