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Latest Issue №4, 2017

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Abel G. AGANBEGYAN

What Package Plan up to 2025 does Russia need?


Marina G. KOLOSNITSYNA, Anna V. PHILIPPOVA

Child Benefits and Poverty: The Case of Russia


Alexander G. KHUDOKORMOV, Sergey I. NEVSKIY

National Schools of Economic Thought in Germany and the Theory of Social Market Economy



Archive / 2017

№ 4

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State Regulation of Economy

pdf Abel G. Aganbegyan
8-29

Scientific article

 
Abstract

The article shows that the resumption of socio-economic growth after the stagnation
and recession of 2013–2017 will be a much more difficult task than overcoming the crisis
of 2009. The reasons for this are the absence of a post-crisis recovery, and the need to
mobilize new sources of growth and overcome the forces that are pulling our economy
down, including sanctions. The old sources of economic growth — high oil prices, foreign
capital inflows, outstripping increase of the budget and loan funds — are a thing of
the past now. As regards economic growth, the absence of an elementary coordination
between different branches of the government is the main reason for stagnation and
recession. The author justifies the need for a unified package plan of social and economic
development which would cover the expanded consolidated budget, including regional
indicators, the largest corporations controlled by the state (Gazprom, Rosneft, Russian
Railways, Rosatom, Rostechnologies), state banks controlling 60% of all banking assets
of the country, other non-budgetary enterprises, and organizations of federal, regional
and municipal levels. It is shown that in 2013–2015, the absence of such a unified plan
resulted in reduction of the state-controlled investments by 25%. In turn, this led the
country to stagnation and recession. Based on the above, the country does not need a
long-term program traditionally compiled by the Ministry of Economic Development in
the form of a report with projected addressless indicators, but a real comprehensive plan
with targeted indicators for enterprises and organizations controlled by the state; with a
unified finance and credit (project) plan, including a specific investment program; with
an innovative program; and with a system of incentive measures and structural reforms,
including a tax reform.

Keywords: package plan, investment program, innovative program, structural reforms, tax
reform.

JEL: O10, O11, O13, O15, O16.

Abel G. Aganbegyan, Academician, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
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Ivan L. Lyubimov, Maria V. Kazakova 30-59

Scientific article

 
Abstract

In this paper, we discuss a mechanism linking the quality of institutions and the
composition of demand for production inputs. We construct a simple theoretical model
when a company can either produce a capital-intensive, or a labour-intensive good. In
the former case, it uses physical and human capital as inputs while in the latter case,
it employs human capital and labour to produce output. If property rights are wellprotected
the company has higher incentives to start a capital-intensive production, as
with a reliable enforcement of the property rights it can acquire a higher return from
investing into physical capital. On the contrary, a less reliable protection of the property
rights creates a potential threat to the firm as physical capital can be expropriated or
arrested to urge the company to share its profits with rent-seekers. Thus, by not investing
into physical capital, the company increases its bargaining power vis-a-vis the rentseekers.
But in this case, it also needs less human capital, as the latter is in high demand
when it complements physical capital. As a result, the insufficiently protected property
rights reduce the demand for physical and human capital. And due to the fact that
alongside the imperfectly protected property rights the company prefers to produce a
labour-intensive product, it demands more labour. We illustrate this result with the case
of Venezuela under the presidency of Hugo Chavez where an exogenous institutional
58 Структура спроса на факторы производства как отражение защищенности прав собственности
shock resulted in sharp deterioration of business environment and led to withdrawal of
capital from the country followed by exodus of entrepreneurs, scientists, physicians,
journalists, etc. A lot of capital-intensive companies were shut down while the retail and
wholesale sectors started playing a more prominent role.

Keywords: property rights, human capital, investments, Venezuela.

JEL: D23, J23, J24.

Ivan L. Lyubimov, PhD (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, bldg 1, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
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Maria V. Kazakova, Dr. Sci. (Econ.). Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, bldg 1, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3–5, bldg 1, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).
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pdf Elena I. Dobrolyubova
60-81

Scientific article

 
Abstract

A reform of the state control is one of the eleven national priority projects in Russia
and the only priority project aimed at improving government effectiveness. Most of
the reform’s efforts traditionally focus on improving effectiveness and efficiency of
the state control while the opportunities for using alternative mechanisms are largely
neglected. Meanwhile, there is a broad range of possible alternatives to the state control
and supervision activities, and they could be used for reducing risks and protecting public
values and interests in various areas. The paper reviews the key types of mechanisms used
as alternatives to the state control in the OECD countries. Basing on sociological surveys,
the author analyses a possible perception of such a replacement of the state supervision
with alternative non-governmental mechanisms on the part of the business society. This
analysis allows to formulate the key conditions for using non-governmental mechanisms
as a partial or complete alternative to the state control. Firstly, the nature of risks should
be considered: violations of the legislation should not inevitably and promptly lead
to a damage which cannot be reimbursed. Secondly, sufficient development of nongovernmental
institutes should be ensured in order for them to take on the control
functions along with the accountability for the achieved results. Thirdly, reallocation of
the risk-related costs from the budget (taxpayers at large) to the consumers of specific
sectors should be justified. It is noteworthy that the introduction of the non-governmental
mechanisms should not generate significant additional administrative costs. Finally,
alternative mechanisms should be used in the areas where the state control proves
ineffective and inefficient.

Keywords: alternative regulatory mechanisms, state control, control and supervision activities,
risks of damage, self-regulation, liability insurance, effectiveness of control authorities.

JEL: H11, L51.

Elena I. Dobrolyubova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Leading Researcher, Center for Public Administration Technologies, Institute of Applied Economic Research, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Adminictration (82/1, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
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Boris I. Tikhomirov, Alexander A. Frenkel 82-117

Scientific article

 
Abstract

The article deals with problems constraining economic and social development and
suggests a number of approaches to their solution. It suggests an estimation of the
state of governance and the necessity of transition to the system of strategic planning.
A new system of governance should consist of such elements as development and
legislative approval of a unified long term socio-economic policy, mechanisms of
diversification of the economy, demand for innovations, creation of a competitive
environment, and other factors of economic growth and social progress. The article
marks the necessity of developing a strategic forecast of the Russian Federation, which
will be in accordance with the law on strategic planning and could provide an optimal
scenario of overcoming risks and threats while taking into account problems of the
national security. The most important issues of the development of the unified socioeconomic
policy are also touched upon. The authors substantiate a suggestion that
in order to ensure the implementation of the law on strategic planning based on the
unified socio-economic policy and the updated Strategy of the National Security of
the Russian Federation, conceptual provisions and regulatory documents on issues
of strategic planning should be clarified. They also suggest developing a long term
national program of economic restructuring and social progress. They recommend
that documents on the management of short-term socio-economic development,
and primarily on short-term (annual) forecasts and budgets, should be included in
the law on strategic planning. The article substantiates ways of overcoming artificially
created difficulties in the implementation of the principle of continuity of the public
administration. It is proposed to ensure active participation of scientific and public
organizations in creating and functioning of a new system of public administration. The
article stresses the necessity of developing effective tools based on modern scientific
achievements in the field of preparation and realization of optimal scenarios of socioeconomic
development, which would provide a basis for a system of interconnected
strategic planning documents. The authors suggest that a Federal state power body
on the matters of strategic development should be created under the President of the
Russian Federation.

Keywords: strategic planning, socio-economic policy, forecast, best-case scenario, import
substitution, innovations.

JEL: E20, E22, E26, E27.

Boris I. Tikhomirov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.). Center for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting, Institute of Economy, RAS (32, Nakhimovskiy prosp., Moscow, 117218, Russian Federation).
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Alexander A. Frenkel, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Center for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting, Institute of Economy, RAS (32, Nakhimovskiy prosp., Moscow, 117218, Russian Federation).
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Social Sphere Economics

Marina G. Kolosnitsyna, Anna V. Philippova 118-153

Scientific article

 
Abstract

25 years have passed since the beginning of the market reforms in Russia. Like other
post-soviet countries, in the early 90s, Russia faced a period of sharp decline in real
household incomes followed by gradual growth of the welfare of the population.
However, income inequality remained a burning problem throughout this time. The
poverty headcount is still about 13% on the average and varies greatly depending on
territories and socio-demographic groups. Russian poverty has clear specifics: there
is a high risk of poverty for families with children. This paper analyses effectiveness
of child benefits from various perspectives. We estimate the benefits’ impact on the
poverty of families with children using the concepts of absolute, relative and subjective
poverty. The study is based on the pooled and panel household data from the Russia
Longitudinal Monitoring Survey conducted by the Higher School of Economics
(RLMS HSE) in 2003–2015. We assess the influence of the child benefits on the
probability of poverty using various econometric models. The results are robust and
show that the system of child benefits all in all reduce the risk of absolute and relative
poverty of the households. However, the subjective perception of poverty is positively
correlated with the benefits. The study also reveals leaks and significant gaps in
the coverage of poor families with the system of child benefits. Overall, the study
confirms low effectiveness of the child benefits system in Russia and indicates a need
for improving its targeting.

Keywords: child benefits, absolute poverty, relative poverty, subjective poverty, Russia.

JEL: I32, I38.

Marina G. Kolosnitsyna, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Department of Applied Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics (20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation).
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Anna V. Philippova, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Laboratory for Economic Research in Public Sector, National Research University Higher School of Economics (20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation).
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Antimonopoly Policy

Anastasia A. Shastitko 154-167

Scientific article

 
Abstract

Legal uncertainty is one of the most serious problems of the antitrust law that is caused
by the way the law is enforced in different countries, the way competition policy has
developed, and its underlying economic theory. Legal uncertainty reveals itself in the
absence of a uniform goal of competition policy both at the level of the underlying
economic theory, and at the level of antitrust authorities. In its turn, the way competition
policy has developed, and the way it is implemented in different countries affect economic
theory in general and the definition of competition in particular. It was shown that the
goals of competition policy not only fail to correspond to the ones it was created for, but
contradict them. It might have been caused by the emergence of the underlying economic
theory at some point in the history of competition policy, and by the influence of other
economic policies on the goals of competition policy. The article offers an analysis of
competition policy from the historical perspective that allows to identify new aspects
of the key problems of competition policy. In particular, the article reviews the issue
of competition as a market structure, as a behavior of a company in the market, and
as an outcome of some behavior of a company in the market. These approaches to the
definition of competition do not always comply with each other and sometimes are
contradictive. The issue of a contradiction between the rule of law and rule of reason
approaches is also touched upon.

Keywords: competition policy, competition, legal uncertainty, rule of law, rule of reason.

JEL: L40, B49.

Anastasia А. Shastitko, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), PhD Student in Economics at the New School for Social Research (6E 16th St., New York, NY10003, US); Research Fellow at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy
and Public Administration (82, Prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
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Economics of Primary Sector

Mikhail N. Dudin, Nikolai V. Lyasnikov, Oleg D. Protsenko, Valery A. Tsvetkov

168-195

Scientific article

 
Abstract

The article outlines the main scientific and methodological views and approaches to
risk measurement of the projects related to extraction of hydrocarbon resources in the
Arctic. Special attention is paid to the methods of quantification of risks of the Arctic
projects, i. e. those risks which have no definite value or quantitative expression and must
be estimated using verbal and mathematical transformations. Regarding quantification
of risks of the Arctic projects related to the extraction of hydrocarbon resources, the
article proposes a methodology based on integration of financial, econometric, and
economic methods which allows to convert original information into a comparable
magnitude. Testing methods using the example of two Arctic projects have shown that
risks in these projects are above average. This, in turn, may affect the environment and
economic efficiency of the hydrocarbon production in the Arctic. The methodical
194 Квантификация и оценка рисков проектов добычи углеводородных ресурсов в Арктике
approach proposed by the authors gives an adaptive tool that can also be used in order
to analyze and measure the risk of other capital investment projects in the energy sector.
As a key conclusion, the authors specify that the quantification of the risks, as well as
publication of the data on the level of risks of the Arctic projects, will undoubtedly
contribute to improving transparency of the activities of international and Russian
oil and gas corporations. In turn, this will ensure growth of social and environmental
responsibility of corporate structures which suggests that exploration, as well as work
related to the production of hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic, will meet modern
scientific and management paradigm (socialization, greening activities providing
sustainable development of corporate and business structures).

Keywords: oil and gas, the Arctic shelf, stocks of raw materials, risks, Arctic projects, risk
assessment techniques, quantification.

JEL: L5 L51, L71, O13, O33, O44, Q32.

Mikhail N. Dudin, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation)
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Nikolai V. Lyasnikov, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
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Oleg D. Protsenko, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
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Valery A. Tsvetkov
, Corresponding Member. RAS. Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor. Market Economy Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (47, Nakhimovsky prosp., Moscow, 117418, Russian Federation).
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Finance and Credit

Irina A. Freidina 196-203

Scientific article

 
Abstract

The article examines practical experience of financing of infrastructure projects in the
US, Australia, Chile, China, India and Kazakhstan. The author points out the specifics
of the circulation of infrastructure bonds. Financing of infrastructure projects through
bonds has both advantages and disadvantages. In the world practice, there are examples of
successful application of the mechanism of issuing infrastructure bonds in order to finance
real projects. In the US, infrastructure bonds are issued at the municipal level and are
called special purpose bonds. In recent years, financing of infrastructure projects is actively
developing in the world practice due to corporatization. In order to attract investments,
infrastructure funds are being created in countries with developed economy that already
account for 2% of the total investment funds. The world largest investor in the development
of transport infrastructure is China which invests amounts equivalent to 8% of the national
GDP in infrastructure projects. In the system of financing of the transport infrastructure
facilities in India, the main focus is on private capital. The share of the state budget funds
and government loans in the volume of the infrastructure investments is a little more than
35%. Today, imperfection of the legal mechanism obstructing an effective implementation
of this type of financial instruments is a serious problem as regards the introduction of
infrastructure bonds in Russia. The author brings forth recommendations for adoption of
infrastructure bonds in the Russian financial market. The international experience of using
bonds to finance the construction and modernization of transport infrastructure allows
us to assert that this channel of attracting investments is the most promising for Russia.

Keywords: infrastructure bonds, public-private partnership, development institutions,
transport infrastructure.

JEL: G20, G23.

Irina A. Freidina, The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
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History of Economic Thought

Alexander G. Khudokormov, Sergey I. Nevskiy 204-250

Scientific article

 
Abstract

Since the 19th century, development of economic scientific schools in Germany was under
the influence of specific historical realities – processes of industrialization, unification
of the German states, world wars, economic crises, and so on. At different historical
stages, representatives of the three generations of the German historical school —
social school, ordoliberalism of the Freiburg school, or the theory of the social market
economy — mostly advocated the idea of state reformism and paternalism demanding
the existence of a “strong state” that provides the institutional framework of law and
order (“ordnungsrahmen”). To some extent, they exerted intellectual influence on the
development of the principles of economic policy in Germany forming its economic
constitution and determining the nation’s economic culture. This article traces the
history of the genesis of the ideological foundations of the social market economy — the
concept that laid the basis for the “economic miracle” in the post-war West Germany.
As is known, the theoretical framework of this concept was based on various streams of
socio-economic and legal thought. Firstly, we focus on the cultural and historical context
of the formation of national economic schools in Germany in the second half of the 19th
and beginning of the 20th century. Then we examine the main features of the crisis of the
German economic science in the Weimar period and analyze the background for the
emergence of the neoliberal economic thought in the second quarter of the 20th century.
Furthermore, we explore the methodological nature of the ordoliberal doctrine of the
Freiburg school (the theory of the competitive order) and systematize the basic principles
242 Национальные экономические школы в Германии и теория социального рыночного хозяйства
of the theory of the social market economy. Finally, we do a brief historiographical
excursus into the scientific discourse in Russia on the theory and practice of the social
market economy in Germany.

Keywords: history of economic thought in Germany, New historical school, German
neoliberalism, Freiburg school, social market economy.

JEL: A11, B15, B25, B41, N01.

Alexander G. Khudokormov, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Head of the Department of the History of Economics and History of Economic Thinking, Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University (1/46, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation).
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Sergey I. Nevskiy, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Department of the History of Economics and History of Economic Thinking, Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University (1/46, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation).
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INTERVIEW

Interview with Tomáš Sedláček 250-269

Interview

 
Abstract

 


Tomáš Sedláček
, Lecturer in Economics of the Charles University in Prague, Chief Macroeconomic Strategist at Československá obchodní banka (ČSOB), Economic Adviser to President of the Czech Republic Václav Havel
in 2001–2003.
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Yury V. Kuznetsov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Deputy-Editor-in-Chief, Economic Policy (3-5, Gazetny per., bldg 1, Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation).
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Artem A. Smirnov, Cand. Sci. (Philos.), Senior Editor, Gaidar Institute Press (5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).
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