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Latest Issue № 2, 2019

Archive / 2015

Download No 2, 2015
No 2

Economic Policy


pdf Vladimir MAU
The paper deals with various crises which post-communist Russian economy faced with. There are transitions crisis from centrally-planned to market economy, financial crisis, external shocks, etc. Special attention is paid to combination of crises, their trends and character of anti-crisis policies.
Key words: transformational crisis, system crisis, cyclical crisis, financial crisis, external shocks, revolution, post-communist transformation.
JEL: E32, O11, P27.

Vladimir Mau, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), PhD (Econ.), professor, rector, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (84, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).


The paper estimates contribution of domestic and foreign fundamental factors to the dynamics of main macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation during the crisis of 2008 and in subsequent years on the basis of the developed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Russian economy.
Key words: DSGE, Russian economy, crisis, oil prices, economic growth slowdown.
JEL: E37, E47, F41.

Sergey Drobyshevskya,b, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), associate professor.

Andrey Polbina,b.

a Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3-5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation).
b Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration 
   (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

Political Economy

pdf Aliaksandr KAVALIOU
The aim of the paper is to analyze the process of evolution of Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ATBC). The theory was very popular until 1940 however after that it was in the shadow for the long years. The theory explains business cycle with fiduciary credit and other governmental distortion which lower interest rates and lead to incorrect capital structure compare to sustainable growth which supported by voluntary savings. ATBC considers laissez-faire as the most effective anticyclical economic policy. The paper presents the contribution to the theory made both by former leaders of the school (Mises, Hayek) and by contemporary adepts of the school.
Key words: Austrian school, business cycles, fiduciary media, malinvestment, capital structure.
JEL: B13, В25, Е32, B53.

Aliaksandr Kavaliou
a,b, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), associate professor.

a Centre for Business Education, European Humanities University (12, Tauro g., Vilnius, Lithuania, LT 01114).
b Belarusian National Technical University (65, Praspekt Nezalezhnasci, Minsk, 220013, Republic of Belarus).

Economic Policy and Health Care

The article shows the achievements of Russia in increasing the birth rate, mortality reduction and overcoming depopulation as a result of the implementation of the national program "Health" in 2006-2014 years. The special role of mortality in socio-economic development of the country and Russia's place in the international rankings is underlined. In 2014, the reduction in mortality was suspended, and in early 2015 it started to increase with a decrease in fertility. In this context, forward-looking analysis was carried out to find the means to improve the demographic situation and measures which will lead to an accelerated reduction of mortality in our country are identified.
Key words: health care, population policy, fertility, mortality.
JEL: I10, I15, I18.

Abel Aganbegyan, academician, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

World Economy

This article concerns the current economic situation and possible development of trade within BRICS group. The analysis of economic problems and development goals indicates that BRICS countries have common growth priorities. This similarity can serve as a basis for deepening cooperation among countries in future. Consideration of the peculiarities of geographical and commodity exports structure proves that up to now trade complementarity within BRICS group is not very high and it will be not so easy to overcome this situation in near future. That's why the author proposes to consider development of investment cooperation as a key tool for expansion of trade in goods and services within BRICS group.
Key words: BRICS, development strategy, modernization of the economy, sustainable development, export structure, trade complementarity, investment cooperation.
JEL: F10, F15, F53.

Elena Rogatnykh, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), profеssor, Russian Foreign Trade Academy
(4A, Pudovkina ul., Moscow, 119285, Russian Federation).
The article presents analysis on structure of trade, its complementarity and terms of bilateral trade among BRICS through the lens of Russia's key trade policy priorities. Assessments for trade complementarity has been made with emphasis on Russian mineral fuel export which proved to be negatively correlated with world demand and directly with determinants from BRICS. The negative dynamics of revealed comparative advantage for Russian oil regarding world export is coherent with parameters of competition among BRICS. Its revealed comparative advantage relatively export among BRICS shows growth which may be explained by its price advantages. The estimations and in-depth analysis in this work prove that BRICS is becoming significant factor for Russia's trade policy. The résumé is that so far transaction costs drive growth of trade among BRICs their common interest is to facilitate doing business and trade among them.
Key words: BRICS, trade complementarity, export structure, comparative advantages, costs of trading across.
JEL: F13, F14, F53.

Natalia Khmelevskaya, Cand. Sci (Econ.), associate professor, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia (76, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119454, Russian Federation).

Analytics and Forecast

A significant part of global hydrocarbon resources is located in the Arctic offshore. Despite its limited exploration to-date in comparison with traditional fields, some countries have already achieved certain success in the development of Arctic projects. The drop in oil prices in 2014-2015 raises serious questions about the future dynamics of fields development in the Arctic. Such progress will be determined by oil prices and, to an even greater extent, by advancements in technological innovation and cost reduction, which, in turn, depend on the institutional environment and tax regimes.
The article covers in detail the approach to the development of the region in the United States the country with the largest oil production on the Arctic offshore. The authors researched the regulatory framework of companies' access to Arctic offshore hydrocarbons in the USA and the existing tax system. For understanding the economics of oil part of the Arctic projects, the authors have analysed economic efficiency of the development of a hypothetical sample field on the Arctic offshore. Calculations of economic indicators of such a sample project were made based on tax regimes of three countries which are advanced in the development of the reserves in the Arctic, namely, the USA, Russia and Norway. These calculations allow to determine the approximate threshold of profitability of an Arctic project under different assumptions about oil prices and different models of regulation. Based on these comparisons, the authors made conclusions with regards to institutional and fiscal conditions which may contribute to the development of hydrocarbons in the Arctic offshore region.
Key words: Arctic, offshore exploitation, government regulation, taxation, oil production, USA, Russia, Norway.
JEL: D2, H2, H3.

Regina Bazaleva

Peter Kaznacheev, Cand. Sci. (Phil.), associate professor.

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(84, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
pdf Dmitry MACHERET
The article substantiates the possibility of using dynamics of freight traffic as a macroeconomic indicator. There is shown a special importance in the conditions of Russian growth rates of daily average loading of goods by rail transport for the characterization of economic dynamics. There is identified seven phases of economic dynamics based on the analysis of their changes over the years 1960-2014. It is shown that the growth rate of loading goods by rail is not only adequate, but often more operatively and precisely than the traditional macroeconomic indices, reflect to changes in the economic situation. The last phase of the economic dynamics (2010-2014 yr.) was characterized as mid-crisis transition from a market downturn of 2008-2009, which was associated with the global economic crisis, to crisis, which was caused by a combination of institutional problems with the deterioration of price conjuncture of the world markets. For the improvement of economic dynamics it is necessary, first of all, strengthening and development of market institutions. A comparison of different phases of economic dynamics, related as to the period of market and centralized planned economy, allowed to dispel the myth of significant advantages the last, in smoothing intra-annual unevenness of production and transportation. This article shown the positive influence of the structural reform of railway transport on economic dynamics, emphasized the importance of developing transport infrastructure to stimulate economic growth.
Key words: centralized planned economy, market economy, economic dynamics, dynamics and unevenness of railway transportation.
JEL: F15. E32, P29.

Dmitry Macheret, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, Moscow State University of Railway Engineering (MIIT)
(9 bldg. 9, Obraztsova ul., Moscow, 127994, Russian Federation).
pdf Elena CHIRKOVA, Vladislav PETROV
This article presents the results of a study of insider trading during the corporate conflict of shareholders of OJSC "VimpelCom". The study is based on an analysis of cumulative abnormal returns during the period prior to the publication of a news. In the study we analyzed 80 news about the conflict of shareholders of OJSC "VimpelCom" in 2005-2013 years. We found insider trading prior to the public statements made by "Alfa Group" representatives but not by Telenor officials. We have found the presence of a large-scale insider trading prior to the publication of the news about the courts verdicts of the Russian courts and news about government pressure.
Key words: insider trading, cumulative abnormal return, shareholders' conflict.
JEL: G10, G14, G19.

Elena Chirkova, associate professor.

Vladislav Petrov.

National Research University Higher School of Economics
(26, bld 4, ul. Shabolovka, Moscow, 119049, Russian Federation).

Economic Sociology

The goal of this article is to analyze different formats of communication in a city that imply interaction with stranger - an unknown person, a different one, which might be unpredictable. Modern theoretical concepts consider such communication to serve as a basis for the development of a city's community social capital. The empirical results are based on the field studies in four Russian cities (Yaroslavl, Naberezhnie Chelny, Mahachkala, Lipetsk). Though the last few years show the rise of different communication formats opened for every citizen, in some cities communities try to stand apart from other communities, creating their own places of communication. At the same time the conflict potential in this cities is high and the need for open communication between different communities raises dramatically. The author concludes that the most effective ways to reduce social fragmentation are supporting different formats of communication through discussion projects and encouraging communities of interest (especially sport communities). Moreover there could be effective ways to manage public infrastructure in order to make it a platform for communities' interaction.
Key words: communication, urban environment, public places, social capital.
JEL: Z10, Z13.

Dina Lobodanova, Center for regional and urban studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

Classics of Economics

pdf Ludwig von MISES
Ludwig von Mises, an economic classic, analyzes the popular notions of rationality and irrationality and their usage in economics and social sciences. He criticizes the prevailing treatment of rationality of human action as its infallibility and the identification of rationality with purely "material" or pecuniary motivation and interest. In addition Mises presents his ideas on the wide range of issues in the sphere of methodology and epistemology of economics and other social sciences.
Key words: praxeology, Austrian economics, rationality, irrationality, theory and history, understanding, Verstehen, epistemology of economics, epistemology of the social sciences.
JEL: A10, A13, B25.

 Ludwig von Mises (1881—1973)

Symposia and Conferences

XIV Conference "Leontief Readings": on Social Liberalism, Freedom and Etatism