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No 5

Economic Policy


Decomposition of Russian GDP Growth Rates in 1999—2014
The paper proposes a methodology of decomposition of the Russian GDP growth into structural, foreign trade and market components. This approach relies on the decomposition algorithm for macroeconomic indicators in developed countries, considering also high dependence of the Russian economy on terms of trade (dynamics of world oil prices). The authors conclude that there are several phases of Russian economic growth in 1999 to 2014. In addition, the authors show that high oil prices resulted not only in high rates of economic growth, but also the Russian economy overheating; oil prices also eased Russia’s way out of the crisis. The results are of practical value in terms of assessing the effectiveness of economic policy in Russia at various stages of the cycle.
Key words: economic growth, total factor productivity, output gap, oil prices, terms of trade, state of the market..

Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, rector, Russian Foreign Trade Academy under the RF Ministry of Economic Development (4а, Pudovkina ul., Moscow, 119285, Russian Federation).

Sergey Drobyshevsky, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), associate professor, scientific director, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
(3-5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation); director, Center for Macroeconomic Research of the Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

Maria Kazakova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), deputy head, International Department for Fiscal Sustainability Studies,
Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3-5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation);
head of Department for Economic Growth Studies, Institute for Applied Economic Studies,
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(82, Vernadsky prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation). 


Monetary Reforms in Post-War Germany (1948): Preparation, Conduct, Results
This paper deals with the history of the preparation and conduct of monetary reform in 1948 in West and East Germany. The authors analyze the economic background, the reasons for reform and the various options for their conduct, the course of monetary reform in West and East Germany as well as in Berlin, and, last but not least, the socio-economic and political consequences of the reforms for the further development of the FRG and the GDR.
Key words: postwar Germany, occupation zones in Germany, monetary reform, economic policy, occupation policy in Germany, international politics, inflation, institutional changes.

Roman Boldyrev, Cand. Sci. (History), associate professor, Department of world history, Lomonosov Northern (Arctic) Federal University (17, Nab. Severnoj Dviny, Archangelsk, 163002, Russian Federation).

, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), associate professor, Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University (1/46, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation).

Antitrust Policy

 Structural Alternatives for Antimonopoly Policy and Genesis of Institutions of Enforcement (The 100th Anniversary of the USA Federal Trade Commission)
The context of American antitrust agency and its first steps are described. Main trade-offs of American antitrust development have been identified from historic retrospect. Key properties of the Federal Trade Commission as an agency responsible for enforcement are discussed.
Key words: competition, antimonopoly policy, Federal Trade Commission.

Andrey Tsyganov, deputy head, FAS Russia; leading researcher, Economics Faculty, Lomonosov Moscow State University (11, D-242, GSP-3, Sadovaya-Kudrinskaya ul., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).
Would Time Show? The Mid-Term Effects of the Trade Law
The paper evaluates the mid-term impact of the new trade law aimed at restoring a "balance­ of market power" in retailer-supplier relationships. Empirical data were ­collected­ in November-December 2013 from the grocery and non-food sectors. 843 filled questionnaires were received from managers of retail chains and their suppliers in five Russia's cities. The author argues that expected improvement of contractual relations has not been achieved. There are no significant effects of the trade law on conditions of market entry, frequency of vertical restraints, and general estimations of the level of contract requirements. At the same time, administrative costs of the surveyed companies have increased due to additional control imposed by the state regulator.
Key words: retailing, contractual practices, trade law, regulatory impact assessment.

Vadim Radaev, professor, head of Laboratory for studies in economic sociology, first vice-rector, National Research University Higher School of Economics (20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation).
The Concept of "Сomparable Markets" in Russian Antitrust Practice
One of the key areas of competition policy is to counter the abuse of dominant position, one of the most dangerous forms of which is establishing and maintaining monopolistically high. According to the Article 6 of the Law “On protection of competition” two alternative criteria are assumed to be applied for evaluation of monopolistically high prices established by an economic entity. One of them is based on the “comparable markets” concept. However, in practice there are considerable difficulties in qualifying commodity markets as comparable, which raise the risks of type I and type II errors in antitrust enforcement. This leads to deterioration of ability of the legal system to contain the activity, which results in the restriction of competition and efficiency losses (consumer welfare losses). This article focuses on the economic analysis of the concept of “comparable markets” in Russian antitrust legislation in comparison with the world best practices for its application.
Key words: comparable markets, antitrust enforcement, economic analysis.

Svetlana Golovanova, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, Chair of Economic Theory and Econometrics,
Faculty of Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics
(25/12, B. Pecherskaya ul., N. Novgorod, 603155, Russian Federation);
senior researcher, Competition and Economic Regulation Research Centre, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving Regulation In the Common Economic Space
The study's subject is the analysis of tariff regulations of the laws of the Common Economic Space with regard to energy efficiency and energy saving in the railway transport. The aim is formation of the incentive's system for natural monopolies for energy efficiency and energy saving developing and its application in the practice of tariffs regulation.
Key words: common economic space, Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Belarus, energy efficiency, energy saving, railway transport, tariffs for freightage.

Oksana Semenova, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), leading researcher, Centre of economy of natural monopoly in transportation.
Oksana Mozgovaya, deputy commercial director.
Sergei Repetyuk, commercial director.

Natural monopoly economics Institute of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadsky prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).

International Economics

On the Question of the Presence of De-Globalization in World Trade
The article examines the key trends and indicators of internationalization of the world economy — the participation of countries and regions in world trade, the use of protective measures, the dynamics of international capital flows. The study shows that, despite the negative developments in the global economy due to globalization, there is no pronounced de-globalization, e.g. the negative trend in absolute and relative indicators characterizing the activity of the main components of the world economy and inclusion of countries into global processes.
Key words: globalization, de-globalization, world trade, protectionist measures.

Pavel Kadochnikov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), vice rector for research, Russian Foreign Trade Academy
(4a, Pudovkin ul., Moscow, 119285, Russian Federation).

Timur Aliev, researcher, Russia APEC Study Center, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy
and Public Administration (11, Prechistenskaya nab., Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation).

Analytics and Forecast

Oil Prices Impact on Economic Growth in Contemporary Russia:
A Theoretical Interpretation
The paper discusses the theoretical impact of world oil prices on economic development and growth rate for the Russian economy. The long- and short-run mechanisms that oil price changes affect output are discussed. It is argued that the oil price changes influence on the output has significantly decreased compared with Russian economy recovery in the early 2000s. The main paper conclusion is that, based on the classical models, there are no arguments for the permanent oil prices increase affect the long-term economic growth, only short-term transient dynamics between two long-run equilibria may be interpreted.
Key words: oil prices, economic growth, small open economy.

Georgy Idrisov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), head of the Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Research Center, RANEPA1; head of the Real Sector Division, IEP2.

Maria Kazakova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), head of the Department for Economic Growth Studies, RANEPA1;
deputy head of the International Department for Fiscal Sustainability Studies, IEP2.

Andrey Polbin, senior research fellow of the Center for Economic Modeling of Energy and Environment, RANEPA1; senior research fellow of the Macroeconomics and Finance Division, IEP2.

1  Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration 
    (82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 117517, Russian Federation).
2  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3-5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125009, Russian Federation)
Healthy Lifestyle and Individual Time Preferences of Russians
This paper is devoted to analysis of factors that influence a healthy lifestyle of Russians. Along with such factors as age, marital status, size of a household, income, educational level, self-rated health, etc. we consider a rate of time preferences. This rate shows individual ability to postpone utility from consumption to the future. The study is based on the survey conducted by the Yuri Levada Analytical Center in 2011. We construct a representative sample of the adult population of Russia. The basic model for econometric analysis is an ordered probit model. Findings suggest that the rate of time preferences positively influences a healthy lifestyle of Russians.
Key words: rate of time preferences, healthy lifestyle, Russia.

Tatiana Kossova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), National Research University Higher School of Economics
(20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation).

Elena Kossova, Cand. Sci. (Math.), National Research University Higher School of Economics
(20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation).

Maria Sheluntsova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), National Research University Higher School of Economics
(38, Studencheskaya ul., Perm, 614070, Russian Federation).
Performance Management in Public Administration: Old Recipes or a New Model?
Russia has accumulated significant experience in developing and applying performance management instruments and mechanisms. However, the expected impact of these approaches, such as improved efficiency of public spending or better governance effectiveness, has not been achieved. The reasons for lack of progress in applying performance management are often linked to the approach that any such practices demonstrate a return to the methods used in administrative planning economy. This article proposes the ways to overcome formalistic approaches to planning, monitoring, and evaluation of results and supports the key principles for implementing performance management as a model of governance as well as reviews the conditions for introducing such a model.
Key words: performance management, program-oriented governance, performance indicators, project management, government effectiveness, performance-related pay.

Vladimir Yuzhakov, Dr. Sci. (Philos.), professor, director.

Elena Dobrolyubova, deputy director.

Oleg Alexandrov, senior research fellow.

Center for Public Administration Technologies, Institute of Applied Economic Studies,
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(82, Vernadsky prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).