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Archive / 2014

Download No 2, 2014
No 2

Economic Policy


Actual Issues of Banking System Development in Russia
In 2013 the situation in the Russian banking sector dramatically changed. The nominal indicators of the banking sector still grew, but with a slower pace than before. The growth was mainly driven by aggressive actions of banks in the retail lending, though the Russian Central Bank tried to lower attractiveness of those credits. At the same time, one noted a growing misbalance of liquidity distribution across banks, migration of clients from small and medium to big banks (primarily to state-owned banks). The last tendency was added by the Bank of Russia which tried to 'clean up' the banking sector via recall of licenses from many banks, including those which attract individuals' deposits. Such policy of the Bank of Russia (decreasing the number of banks and cessation of banks breaking the prudential requirements) should be more complex, the reform of the banking sector should include measures aimed at its higher capitalization, setting up the class of 'systemically important institutions' and lower role of state-owned banks.
Key words: banking system, central bank policy, banking supervision.

Alexey Vedev, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), head of the Financial Studies Centre, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
(5, Gazetny per., 125009, Moscow, Russian Federation).

Sergey Drobyshevsky, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), associate professor, scientific director, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; director, Centre for Macroeconomic Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, Vernadskogo av., 117517, Moscow, Russian Federation).

Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, rector, Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry for Economic Development of Russia (4а, Pudovkina st., 119285, Moscow, Russian Federation).

Mikhail Khromov
, senior research fellow, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy;
senior research fellow, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(82, Vernadskogo av., 117517, Moscow, Russian Federation).


Synergetic Effect of the NBIC-Technologies and Global Economic Growth in the First Half
of the 21st Century
This paper is reflecting results of forecasting scenario of economic growth and shown that in the economies of developed countries in 2014—2015 will start a noticeable revival, which in 2017—2018 go into lifting the 6th great Kondratiev's economic cycle (K-Wave 2018—2050). The radical innovations for this cycle will be NBIC-technologies (nano-, bio-, information and cognitive technologies). The role of locomotives for coming upward wave of this 6th cycle will be belong to most developed countries — United States, Japan and EU-countries, which are recognized as a leaders in R&D of NBIC-technologies. It is shown that NBIC-technologies, due to the powerful synergetic effect generating by a mutual convergence of nano-, bio-, info- and cognitive technologies, will give strong acceleration pace of technological progress, which exceeded the rate achieved in the previous upward wave of 5th great Kondratieff's economic cycle (K-Wave 1982—2006).
Key words: global economy, growth rates, Kondratiev-Schumpeter's theory, Hirooka's paradigm, NBIC-convergence technology, a synergistic effect, Kondratieff's circles.

Askar Akaev, Dr. Sci. (Tech.), professor, foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, senior research professor, Institute of the Mathematical Investigations of Complex Systems, Lomonosov Moscow State University
(GSP-1, IMSCS, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation).

Andrey Rudskoy, Dr. Sci. (Tech.), professor, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, chancellor, St. Petersburg State Polytechnical University (29, Polytechnical street, St. Petersburg, 195251, Russian Federation).


Customs, Railway Tariff and Tax Policy in the Works by L.  V. Hodskii
(160th anniversary of the scientist)
In 2014 year we celebrate 160 years from the birthday of prominent Russian Economist Leonid Vladimirovich Hodsky. The article describes the customs, railway tariff and tax policy in Russia in the second half of the XIX century and analyses the views presented in his works.
Key words: customs policy, tariff policy, tax policy, history, industry.

Tatyana Shlevkova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), assistant professor, Departmenr of economic theory and economic policy, Volgograd State University (100, Universitetsky prosp., Volgograd, 400066, Russian Federation).

Pension Reform

Tatyana MALEVA
Man in Solidarity Pension System
The new pension formula, which is aimed to strengthen the balance of the solidarity pension system, includes a number of innovations, such as the enhancement of the role of employment history and promotion of late application for a pension. The article is based on the empirical data of the representative sociological survey of population, which allows to analyze the attitude of different social groups to the new rules of issuing the retirement pension and to evaluate the perspectives of different rational models of labor and pension behavior of the population. Also the perspectives of canceling the payment of the basic part of the pension for highly paid working pensioners and establishment of the additional individual retirement contributions from employees are considered.
Key words: PAYG pension system, pension reform, pension formula, seniority, retirement age, informal employment, the empirical data.

Tatyana Maleva, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), doctor of business administration, director, Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting (INSAP), Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(11, Prechistenskaya nab., Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation).
On the "Simplicity" of Actual Pension Formula
In this article we analyze the current method of calculating old age pension (pension formula). Our analysis shows that the current pension formula is ambiguous and non-transparent. As a result we debunk the myth about simplicity of the old age pension calculation, using the current pension formula. We propose comprehensive measures to improve effectiveness of the pension system and reinforce incentives for behavior of insured people. Our approach is based on the improvement of transparency of the pension calculation in the context of the new pension formula, which the Russian Federation will start using in 2015.
Key words: pension system, pension reform, pension formula, insurance part of old age pension, estimated pension wealth.

Yury Gorlin, Cand Sci. (Econ.), Institute of Social Analysis and Forecast (INSAP), Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (11, Prechistenskaya nab., Moscow, 119034, Russian Federation).

Analytics and Forecast

Non-business Purposes as a Factor of Organizational Structuring of Russian Corporations
Along with the economic objectives, business owners have non-economic priorities, which reflect their individual preferences and personal aspirations. The article examines the impact of these objectives on the organizational structure of holding type corporations. For determining the nature of such influence it is offered to group business owners in extent of their administrative participation in commercial operation of assets into five main categories. It is stated in the article that different categories of owners are consistent with the organizational and administrative forms of corporations. Based on this statement, the author shows how non-business priorities of owners influence the organizational structure of holding type corporations, function of the corporate head-office and other business units of the corporations. The article also describes the mechanism how non-business purposes influence the nature of «horizontal» and «vertical» interaction of various structural units of the corporation; the author noted the necessity and possible trends of assets' coordination and non-business priorities of entrepreneurs.
Key words: non-business purposes, organic rationality, entrepreneurs, owners, organizational structure, holding type corporations.

Dmitry Zhdanov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 117517, Russian Federation).

Tendencies and Perspectives

Deadlock. Russian Economy in 2013
The unsatisfactory economic results of 2013 in Russia are not accidental in the article substantiates. There was influence not only the absence of measures for necessary reforms, but the measures which were undertaken and made the business climate worse. The Yucos's case and some processes taken place after it showed the real measure of the defenselessness the private property in the country. This contributed to step by step creation the institutional atmosphere under which became dangerous to carry out business successfully, deprived the confidence of businessmen to their future and their trust to the authorities, undermined their interest to make investments in Russian economy, stimulated the flow capital out of the country. The drop of investments in the fixed capital and the very low economic rise are typical to 2013. Different aspects of the situation in real sector of the economy, money circulation and credit, finance, which determined the main particularities of year 2013, are described in the article.
Key words: main particularities of the year 2013, stagnation, investments, consumer demand, new model of the economic rise.

Victor Starodubrovsky, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, main research fellow, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
(3-5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).

Classics of Economics

Our Banking (The Letters to the Editor of "Russkie Vedomosti" from the Fund Investor
and Shareholder of Several Banks) (The Ending)
The paper deals with the history of private banks in Russia before 1873. The policy of the government and the State Bank regulating banking area is criticized. The author points out that this policy did not stimulate the development of industry and trade, and could not prevent the securities market crisis of 1869.
Key words: history of banks in Russia, private banks, regulation of banks, the securities market crisis of 1869.

Ivan Babst (1824—1881), Russian historian, economist and banker.
Babst, Ivan Kondratievich, Banker
The second commentary article to the republished Babst' work "Our Banking". Babst activities as a banker are analyzed. His contribution to foundation of conservative, liquid and profitable bank is evaluated.
Key words: Babst I. K., conservative banking policy, Moscow Merchant Bank, St. Petersburg Mutual Credit Society.

Andrei Belykh, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), associate professor, JSC "Bank Saint Petersburg"
(64A, Malookhtinskiy pr., St. Petersburg, 195112, Russian Federation).