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No 3

Economic Policy

Practice

Evsej GURVICH
Long-Term Development Prospects for the Russia’s Economy
7—32
 
The paper discusses potential of Russia’s economy long-term growth. Four development scenarios are constructed, then factors defining scenario that would materialize are specified, and chances of various scenarios are estimated. The conclusion is that average (over the period 2012-2030) growth rate in the most likely scenarios will be around 3% per year — close to the recent OECD forecast. Further analysis reveals that our country has entered a new stage, characterized with marked growth deceleration of per capita GDP and fiscal revenues. At this stage perhaps the major threat to Russia’s economy may be related to the government’s efforts to boost growth without any fundamental reforms.
Key words: long-term projections, development scenarios, public institute quality.

Evsej Gurvich, Cand. Sci. (Phys.–Math.), head of the Economic Expert Group
(5/4, Vetoshny per., Moscow, 109012, Russian Federacion).
 
Leonid GRIGORIEV
Scenarios of Development and Economic Institutions
33—60
 
By now Russian society, economy and state institutions has roots largely in the economic institutions formatted in the quarter a century of transition. External factors for the Russian economy are getting more risky for next decades, especially in terms of the quality of growth. Situation is even more difficult due to combination of reducing the work force, “brain drain” to emigration (to OECD countries) and the huge social and regional disparities. Modernization of the economy, shift to innovative type of development depends more on institutions than on the technology. Difficulties of development meet naturally another issue of the growing aspirations and demands of major social groups. New mobilization “by idea” now is problematic – it would take the visual success in realty and certainty of prospects. Success of modernization depends actually on “second transformation” to reach a highway of developed democratic market economy, what was the objective when reforms started. This approach could be the ground for creating and public support for long-term strategy of development for next two generations.

Leonid Grigoriev, tenured professor, Head of the Department of World Economy, Faculty of International Economy and World Policy, National Research University — Higher School of Economics
(K-609, 11, Pokrovsky вlvd, Moscow, 109028, Russian Federation), the chief advisor of the head of the Analytical Center, Government of the Russian Federation
(12, prosp. Academika Sakharova, Moscow, 107078, Russian Federation).
 

Theory

Dmitry ZHDANOV
Agency Relations: the Russian Face (Is Russia a Country of Amateurs?)
61—83
 
The domestic agency relations, developing between the principals and their hired managers, are characterized by the set of distinctive features, connected with the absence of established corporate institutions, closeness of business, significant influence of the specific intangible assets which is typical also for the other countries with transition economies. The article presents the results of the surveys among top-managers, the students of the Russian Presidential Academy, devoted to the exploration of the nature of such relationships in Russian companies. On the basis of the research a model description of the selected dependencies is proposed; the concept of managers’ utility and its dependence from the qualification of the agent’s loyalty is introduced; the recommendations on recruiting managers and rationalization of the holding corporations’ organizational structure are given.
Key words: agency relations, selection and recruitment of top-managers, their qualification, loyalty, and utility, modeling, the organizational structure of the corporation.

Dmitry Zhdanov, deputy dean of the School of Corporate Management, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
 

History

Lyudmila KLEEVA, Andrei KULAGIN
Transformation of Scientific Organizations to Self-sufficiency in 1988—1989
84—106
 
The article examines the conditions, principles, characteristics and consequences of the translation of scientific organizations in the USSR to cost accounting and self-financing in 1988-1989. The conclusions that can be drawn from the analysis of the practice of transferring scientific organizations to self-sufficiency, will be useful in developing and implementing modern mechanisms of functioning of the Russian scientific-technological sphere.
Key words: self-supporting research organizations, self-financing, the financial interest, liability, objectives operation organizations payroll.

Lyudmila Kleeva,  Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor of Economic Theory and Policy Graduate School of Corporate Management, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
Andrei Kulagin,  Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, senior researcher, Institute for the Study of Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Building B, 30-A, Obrucheva ul., Moscow, 117485, Russian Federation).
 

Antitrust Policy

Andrei SHASTITKO
The Role of Economic Analysis in Antitrust: the General in the Particular
107—125
 
Based on three antitrust cases it have been demonstrated not only the importance of the choice of relevant economic concepts and assumptions to explain existing business practice on goods markets, but also probable differences in implementation of the one and the same concept which are related to differences in interests. The first case is about chain stores trading appliances and accused in concerted practice. The accusation has been related to supplementary conditions of contracts with suppliers. The second case, related to countervailing power, network externalities and “waterbed effect” concepts — is against mobile operator accused in abuse of dominance. The third case is about Microsoft where it might be identified competing essential facilities doctrine and network externalities concept, on the one hand, and effects related to accusations in market monopolization (USA) and abuse of dominance (EU), on the other hand.
Key words: antitrust, error types I and II, network effects, essential facilities.

Andrei Shastitko,  Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, director of the Center for Competition and Economic Regulation Research, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 117571, Russian Federation).
 
Svetlana GOLOVANOVA
The Doctrine of Key Facilities in the Russian Anti-Monopoly Policy: Basic Factors and Risks of Using
126—143
 
The research is devoted to the analysis of reasons and risks of use of the essential facilities doctrine in Russian antitrust policy. Basing on the comparative analysis of the US and European experience it is shown that the results of the doctrine application depend very much on the legal system. According to the considered cases Russian experience of following the principles of the Doctrine in antitrust cases against natural monopolies is quite successful. However, the efficiency of the instrument becomes questionable when it is used outside of the infrastructure sectors due to the high probability of errors of law enforcement.
Key words: essential facilities doctrine, antitrust policy, natural monopoly.

Svetlana Golovanova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Department of Economic Theory and Econometrics, National Research University — Higher School of Economics — Nizhny Novgorod
(25/12, B. Pecherskaya ul., N. Novgorod, 603155, Russian Federation).
 

Regional Economic Policy

Olesya DONTSOVA, Vadim ZASKO
Regional Clusters as a Tool for Sustainable Economic Growth of the Russian Federation
144—151
 
In article the role of regional clusters in national economy is defined. The problem of stability of development of regional systems gained now special relevance in view of preservation of strong differentiation of subjects of the Russian Federation on level of social and economic development. In a context of a considered problem in the Russian Federation long ago I ripened need of definition and implementation of the concept of the state regional policy directed on ensuring sustained economic growth of territories by means of stimulation of search of endogenous mechanisms of development. In the light of it in article purposeful creation in the Russian economy of regional clusters as one of the most effective forms of integration of managing subjects, their motivation to expanded reproduction and, as a result, to consecutive increase of welfare of the population and his life level is offered. Regional strategy of a sustainable development has to be focused first of all on increase in economic capacity of territories.
Key words: clusters, regional clusters, economic growth, social and economic development, innovative strategy.

Olesya Dontsova, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), assistant professor of Macroeconomic Regulation Cathedra, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
(49, Leningradsky prosp. Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).
Vadim Zasko, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Deputy Director of the Center of Tax Administration­ and Financial Management, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
 

Analytics and Forecast

Avner OFFER
The Economy of Obligation: Incomplete Contracts and the Cost of the Welfare State (The Ending)
152—166
 
Western governments typically pay out some 30 percent of GDP for social purposes. This is financed by taxation on a pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) basis. How efficient are these transfers, and can market or other mechanisms do it better? The problem arises since no individual stands alone. During the life cycle there are several periods of unavoidable dependency, in which there is no earning and little to bargain with: motherhood, infancy, childhood, education, illness, disability, unemployment, old age. The problem is how to transfer resources from ‘producers’ to ‘dependants’ over the life cycle. The market solution is for individuals to accumulate financial assets and to transfer them over the life cycle by means of long-term contracts with financial intermediaries.
Key words: law, economics, psychology, political science, history.

Avner Offer, All Souls College, University of Oxford (High Street, Oxford, Oxfordshire, OX1 4AL, England).
 
Arkady SOLOVIEV
Reserves of Efficiency of the Pension System under the New Pension Reform
167—177
 
Pension system operating depends on many factors, and the isolated consideration of action on the pension system through the prism of the effects, for example, demographic factors, without taking account of other factors such as macroeconomic, inevitably fixes the fact of instability of the Russian pension system on long-term prospect. To become effective, the pension system should cooperate with economy on parity conditions, instead of on the leftover principle, and not be used as the tool of regulation of the state budget deficit. Thus the pension system should be considered not as a burden for economy, but as its necessary part. And if reserves of its efficiency increasing are used full-fledged, as actuarial calculations show, it is possible to reduce the insurance tariff and to double pensions, and to soften demographic transition.
Key words: economics, demography, pension system, actuarial calculations.

Arkady Soloviev, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, head of the Department of Actuarial Computations and Strategic Planning, Pension Fund of the Russian Federation (4, Shabolovka ul., Moscow, 119991, Russian Federacion).
 
Leonid KHODOV
Reform of the German Bundeswehr — Transformation into Contract Army
175—186
 
Modern German Army — Bundeswehr — was created in autumn 1954, after the Paris agreements were signed between the governments of Germany and the western states to abolish the occupation regime and the restore the state sovereignty. Formation of the Bundeswehr on the principle of voluntary recruitment, if not change the overall employment situation in Germany, but creates another social group of stable population of about 250,000 military and civilian personnel who have a guaranteed income and jobs, as well as social security in the future.
Key words: Bundeswehr, conscription, the contract system, the military reform.

Leonid Khodov, professor, International University (17, Leningradsky prosp., Moscow, 125040, Russian Federacion).
 

Classics of Economics

John CAIRNES
Essays in Political Economy (Theoretical an Applied Aspects).
Chapter 3. International Results
187—206
 
In this chapter the author analyses in what manner the loss arising from the gold movement is likely to be distributed among commercial nations, and how far this loss may in particular cases be neutralized or compensated by other influences which the same movement may develop. Here, then, one can find a vast disturbance in the conditions of national wealth, a disturbance originating in the gold discoveries, and resulting in a transfer, on an enormous scale, of consumable goods — the means of well-being from one side of the globe to the other.
Key words: gold, means of circulation, trade, national welfare.

John Cairnes (1823—1875), the British economist.