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Archive / 2013

Download No 2, 2013
No 2

Gaidar Forum

The New Configuration of the World Financial System
7—29

The World Bank: Research And Estimates

The World Bank in Russia
Russian Economic Report No 29. Recovery and Beyond
30—81
 
At first glance, Russia’s economy looks strong. While the global economy was losing momentum and the euro area stuck in recession in 2012, growth in Russia was solid thanks to firm consumption. The achievements are not limited to growth. In 2012, the current account was strong thanks to a large surplus in the trade balance. Capital outflows declined, allowing the Central Bank of Russia to add again to its stock of ­reserves. Unemployment dropped to record lows and wages grew at a solid pace. However, a closer look reveals weaknesses. High oil prices accounted for a fair share of the recent achievements. The oil price nudged up further from record highs in 2011. High oil prices translated into strong export receipts, buoyant fiscal revenues, and rapid increases in public wages and transfers. Both the non-oil current account deficit and non-oil fiscal deficit remained close to record highs, underlying the economy’s reliance on oil.
Key words: Russia’s economy, global economy, budget, trade balance, public debt.

The World Bank in Russia (36/1, B. Molchanovka ul., Moscow, 121069, Russian Federacion).
 

Economic Policy

Practice

Aleksandra BURDYAK
Suburbanization in Russia: is Dacha a Solution to the Housing Problem?
82—96
 
A possibility of solving the housing problem is studied in terms of additional housing resources of the population. Some households, especially families with children and multiple generation families, choose rationally to live in overcrowding house. They value benefits from a convenient location, joint housekeeping and opportunities of children care more than the improvement of the main housing costs. However, some of them have the second accommodation — an apartment or room in a communal flat and these families cannot be considered formally as needed to improve their housing conditions. On weekends or long holidays residents of large cities move to dachas in suburb, solving temporarily the problem of overcrowding flat in the city. The article presents the assessment of the scale of suburban way of life, a description of its factors and links with the problem of crowded housing on Moscow survey data. Also, we simulate the impact of accounting for the second housing on the level of housing of the population. Conclusions are drawn from a nationally representative survey.
Key words: housing, suburbanization, urban population, lifestyle, middle class.

Aleksandra Burdyak, senior researcher, Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation); senior researcher, Institute of Megapolis Human Development
(8, Sadovaya-Samotechnaya ul., Moscow, 127051, Russian Federacion).
 

Theory

Oleg SEMITURKIN
Methods of Analysis of Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy
97—108
 
In this article we give characteristics of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy (further — TMM) and research methods in terms of different economic schools. Described by the general and the differences in the views of different authors on TMM. Found that the study of TMM in developing economies, including Russian Federacion, is complicated­ by several factors. Requires not only an empirical analysis of the dynamics and interactions­ of macroeconomic variables, but also theoretical understanding of these mechanisms impact on existing developments.
Key words: transmission mechanism, monetary policy, emerging markets.

Oleg Semiturkin, chief economist of the Bank of Russian Federacion in the Omsk Region
(1, Bankovskyi per., Omsk, 644099, Russian Federacion ).

 

Analytics and Forecast

Avner OFFER
The Economy of Obligation: Incomplete Contracts and the Cost of the Welfare State
109—126
 
Western governments typically pay out some 30 percent of GDP for social purposes. This is financed by taxation on a pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) basis. How efficient are these transfers, and can market or other mechanisms do it better? The problem arises since no individual stands alone. During the life cycle there are several periods of unavoidable dependency, in which there is no earning and little to bargain with: motherhood, infancy, childhood, education, illness, disability, unemployment, old age. The problem is how to transfer resources from ‘producers’ to ‘dependants’ over the life cycle. The market solution is for individuals to accumulate financial assets and to transfer them over the life cycle by means of long-term contracts with financial intermediaries.
Key words: law, economics, psychology, political science, history.

Avner Offer, All Souls College, University of Oxford (High Street, Oxford, Oxfordshire, OX1 4AL, England).
 

Classics of Economics

John CAIRNES
Essays in Political Economy (Theoretical an Applied Aspects).
Chapter 2. The Course of Depreciation
127—140
 
The additions which are being made to the monetary systems of the world are upon an enormous scale, and the disturbance effected in the relation of prices is proportionally great. Under such circumstances it is very possible that the inequalities resulting may not find their correction throughout the whole period of progressive depreciation; a period which, even with our present facilities of production and distribution, may easily extend over some thirty or forty years. During this transitionary term the action of the new gold on prices will not be uniform, but partial. In relation to the influence of the gold discoveries on the prices of agricultural produce, it is plain that it could be only the same upon them as upon those of any other class of commodities.
Key words: monetary systems, depreciation, gold discoveries.

John Cairnes (1823—1875), the British economist.
 

Tendencies and Perspectives

Victor STARODUBROVSKY
Dynamics of Stagnation. The Russian Economy in 2012
141—32
 
The article is devoted to the Russian Federacionn economic development in 2012 and illustrates that the country enters the stage of stagnation. The economic growth is low and weak and do not corresponds to the real its possibilities. The dynamics most of the main economic indicators was worse than in 2011 and was failing during the year. The investment complex became the factor of stagnation instead of locomotive of the economic growth. Substantiates that the main matter — the unfavorable business climate, especially luck of the confidence between business and authority — lays within the Russian Federacionn State, although external situation and prolongation the crisis phenomenon in the world economy and especially in Europe also influences. The efforts on improving the business climate are now halved, noncomplex and are not able to achieve the real results.
Key words: Russian Federacionn economy, stagnation, low demand, the unfavorable business climate.

Victor Starodubrovsky,  Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, chief research associate of the Gaidar Institute
( 5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federacion).