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Archive / 2012

Download No 2, 2012
No 2

Gaidar Forum-2012

Igor SHUVALOV, Elvira NABIULLINA, Jeffrey SACHS, Andrei SHARONOV, Anton SILUANOV, Alexei ULYUKAYEV, Arkady DVORKOVICH, Oleg VYUGIN, Sergei ALEKSASHENKO, Andrei FURSENKO, Mihail RUTKOWSKI, Tatyana MALEVA
Russia and the World: 2012—2020
5—58
 
Gaidar Forum — is a permanent discussion platform, a meeting of Russian and foreign experts having an impact on the world economic and political development. Every year during the Gaidar forum various ideas and approaches to understanding the global processes taking place in Russia and abroad are discussed. A key theme of Gaidar’s Forum 2012 was to discuss the results of the expert groups working on updating the “Strategy-2020”. The journal publishes some of the statements made in plenary on the themes “A New Growth Model”, “Macroeconomics of the Future” and “New Social Policy”.
Key words: “Strategy-2020”, new growth model, macroeconomics, social policy.

Gaidar Forum

 

Economic Policy

Practice

Alexei KUDRIN
What We Expect from a New Government
59—72
 
New government to be formed after the inauguration of newly elected President of Russia­, must solve a number of tasks. The priorities, in authors opinion, are: macroeconomic stability­, public administration reform, decentralization policy, the reduction of excessive state presence in the economy etc. The real progress in these areas, supported by at least a partial success in the areas that go beyond the actual authority of the government (reducing corruption, improving the judicial system), will provide significant progress toward creating sustainable, competitive economy.
Key words: government, macroeconomic stability, public administration reform, ­decentralization policy.

Alexei Kudrin, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), professor, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
(5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).
 

Theory

Elena SHKREBELA
Effect of Tax Loss Compensation for Investment Decisions: Theoretical Aspects
73—83
 
The article deals with the distribution of tax burden and tax compensation of losses when making investment decisions. The author investigates the effect of asymmetry of tax laws on investment decisions, analyzes a mathematical model that most objectively calculate the tax loss compensation. Foreign experience of assessing the impact of imperfect compensation of losses on the limit effective tax rates is considered.
Key words: investment, tax loss compensation, tax incentives for investment, foreign ­experience, the transfer of losses.

Elena Shkrebela, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).
 

History

Boris MIRONOV
The Classic Scenario: The Russian Revolution of 1917 Under Conditions of Economic Growth and Improve Living Standards (The Ending)
84—105
 
The author proves that the early 20th century Russian revolutions have occurred not because Russia has entered a general permanent crisis after the Great reforms of the 1860s but because the society has not coped with the problems generated by the accelerated modernization. In Russia, as elsewhere, a high rate of success and modernization created new contradictions that caused temporary and local crises evolved into revolution, but with the prudence of the society and the ruling class could be successfully resolved.
Key words: welfare, the Russian revolution, modernization, late imperial Russia.

Boris Mironov, Dr. Sci. (History), professor, St. Petersburg State University
(11, Universitetskaya Nab., St. Petersburg, 119034, Russian Federation); Institute for History
of the Russian Academy of Sciences (7, Petrozavodskaya ul., Saint Petersburg, 197110, Russian Federation)
 

Экономика региона

Irina STARODUBROVSKAYA
The Cure for Fear: Which Policies Can Reduce Conflict in the North Caucasus
106—133
 
The article is devoted to the strategic perspectives of North Caucasus region. The author analyses the causes of conflicts in this region, positive and negative features of federal policy in the North Caucasus Federal District. On the basis of the analysis policy ­recommendations were formulated aiming at correction of the current policy. Implementation of these policy recommendations, in the author’s view, will contribute to the decrease of conflict potential in the region. The results of field research undertaken by the author during last several years are widely used in the article.
Key words: North Caucasus region, federal policy, the causes of conflicts in North ­Caucasus.

Irina Starodubrovskaya, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Center for Political Economy and Regional Development,
Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).
 

Economic Policy and Health Care

Abel AGANBEGYAN
Achieving Higher Levels of Life Expectancy in Russia
134—156
 
In 2011 Russia had reached the highest life expectancy in its history — 70.3 years. The author analyzes the dynamics of this indicator over the past half-century, carries out comparative studies with other countries especially of the developed world. In conclusion, the proposals for further improvement of this important indicator of quality of life are put. The use of management by objectives is proposed for radical reduction of mortality in Russia.
Key words: life expectancy, program-target approach, reduction of mortality.

Abel Aghanbegyan, Academician, Head Department of Economic Theory and Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation).
E-mail: aganbegyan@ane.ru
 

Analytics and Forecast

Victor STARODUBROVSKY
Where the Fate is Taking Us? The Russian Economy in 2011
157—204
 
The first part of the paper examines the specific mode of the development of Russian economy in 2010—2011. Its main features are: instability, uncertainty of economic dynamics­, including investment and consumer demand. These features are not caused only by the problems in the global economy. The main barrier to the development — the poor state of institutional, entrepreneurial climate, resulting in an outflow of capital from the country. It is shown that measures to improve the business climate were predominantly imitative in nature and the danger remains. The undue risks are rised by the implementation of election promises to increase budget spendings, which can be provided only at extremely high prices for energy exports. The author also consideres the main problems of the world economy, creating unfavorable external conditions for domestic production. It is pointed out that recently one can see the signs of a transition to more sustainable development.
Key words: instability, economic performance, investment demand, business climate, the outflow of capital expenditures budget populism.

Victor Starodubrovsky, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
(5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).
E-mail: starodubrovsky@iet.ru

 

Abstracts

205—208