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Archive / 2012

Download No 1, 2012
No 1

Economic Reforms — Twenty Years

Vladimir MAU
From Perestroika to Radical Reforms: the Twentieth Anniversary of the Beginning
of the Post-Communist Transformations
The author presented his vision of the events of the early phases of radical economic reforms in Russia based on the understanding of the Soviet (Russian) transformation as a combination of crises and accordingly of interweaving of several transformation processes. Four large-scale historic challenges for Russia (post-communist transformation, macroeconomic crisis, social revolution, transition to post-industrial era) are identified and analyzed. It is shown that the first three are resolved and the main socio-economic problems of Russia are the crisis of the industrial system and the formation of socio-economic foundations of postindustrial society.
Key words: economic reform, post-communist transformation, macroeconomic crisis, social revolution, post-industrial era.

Vladimir Mau,  Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy
and Public Administration(82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 117571, Russian Federation).

Economic Policy


The Main Causes of Capital Outflow from Russia
In the last 1,5—2 years Russia experienced massive capital outflow, which happened both during the times of excess liquidity and lack of liquidity in the banking sector. Our view is that this outflow can largely be explained by macroeconomic rather than institutional factor: differences in the costs of credit for the Russian companies on the domestic and international markets. Excess liquidity in the banking sector has originated because of financing budget deficit from Reserve fund. Such cheap money allowed Russian banks to provide cheap credit. Later on similar result was achieved as a reaction to the policy of Minfin and CBR to provide liquidity to the banking sector during the new wave of the European crisis in august 2011.
Key words: capital flight, liquidity, Reserve Fund, the budget deficit.

Ksenia Yudaeva, Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank
(19, Vavilova ul., 117997, Moscow, Russian Federation)


Capital Outflows: Where the Money Goes?
During the past year capital outflow data were overcoming CBR’s forecasts significantly and both banking and corporate sectors have contributed to this tendency. Capital outflow from banks can be explained by a number of factors that influence balance of payments a lot: opening deposits abroad, servicing of clients’ FX transactions, operations with Russian companies in offshore jurisdiction and funding of offshore subsidiaries. Considering corporate sector capital outflow of the last years was related to abundant flows of foreign direct investments of Russian companies. Significant part of them was attributed to contributions in capital abroad, particularly transnational M&A deals.
Key words: capital outflow, direct investments, banking and corporate sectors, balance of payments.

Alexey Moiseev
Anastasia Grigorieva

VTB Capital (Federation Tower West, 12, Presnenskaya nab., Moscow, 123100, Russian Federation)
Alexey VEDEV, Andrey KOSAREV
Quantitative Assessments of Institutional Improvements’ Impact on Economic Growth in Russia
The article contains analysis of key factors of Russia’s economic growth during last decade. The model of growth based on domestic demand expansion was unstable, affected by external shocks, stimulated inflation and imports. The reasons are covered in institutional factors, caused relatively low domestic production growth under demand impulses. Authors offer quantitative assessments of potential economic growth as result of institutional environment improvement. Possible measures are improvement of business climate, overcoming corruption, strengthening democratic values and political institutions development. Even partial decision of such problems will lead to economic growth acceleration and improvement quality of growth.
Key words: Russia’s economic growth, domestic demand, institutional factors.

Alexey Vedev, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (5, Gazetny per., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).
Andrey Kosarev, Interstate Statistical Committee of the Commonwealth of Independent States
(39 Bldg.1, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 107450, Russian Federation) 


The Classic Scenario: The Russian Revolution of 1917 Under Conditions of Economic Growth and Improving Living Standards
The author proves that the early 20th century Russian revolutions have occurred not because Russia has entered a general permanent crisis after the Great reforms of the 1860s but because the society has not coped with the problems generated by the accelerated modernization. In Russia, as elsewhere, a high rate of success and modernization created new contradictions that caused temporary and local crises evolved into revolution, but with the prudence of the society and the ruling class could be successfully resolved.
Key words: welfare, the Russian revolution, modernization, late imperial Russia.

Boris Mironov,  Dr. Sci. (Hist.), St. Petersburg State University
(11, Universitetskaya Nab., St. Petersburg, 119034, Russian Federation); St. Petersburg Institute for History
of the Russian Academy of Sciences (7, Petrozavodskaya ul., St. Petersburg, 197110, Russian Federation).


Economics of Education

Sergey MARUEV, Kirill SHILIN
The Model Estimating the Resource Potential of the University to Ensure the Quality of Education
In this paper we propose a method for analyzing the capacity of educational system on the connectivity graph of educational material. It allows to assess the adequacy of existing university resources to train a selected number of students and to identify bottlenecks in the system. The sample program of Master in Economics demonstrated ability to construct the model and its application for quantitative analysis.
Key words: higher education, educational material, university resources.

Sergei Maruev, Cand. Sci. (Tech.).
Cyril Shilin, Dr. Sci. (Tech.).

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 117571, Russian Federation).
The Situation in the German Higher Education
The article is devoted to the situation and the problems of higher education in Germany. There has been a steady increase in the number of students wishing to study including the mass influx of aliens. The structure of the student body to elect their specialties is significantly different from the structure of Germany needs of highly qualified personnel. Serious problems exist due to inadequate funding of universities and educational institutions under the conditions of the budget deficit.
Key words: higher education, number of students, funding of universities.

Leonid Khodov, International University in Moscow (17, Leningradsky prosp., Moscow, 125040, Russian Federation); Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences (11 bldg. 3B , Mokhovaya ul., Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation).

Antitrust Policy

Errors of I and II Types in Antimonopoly Mergers Control
Issues of ex post evaluation of mergers and antitrust bodies prescriptions are discussed. Among them: interrelation of enactment and enforcement from the perspectives of errors of I and II types in antitrust mergers control; probable consequences of mergers for competition; comparative advantages and failures of decision variants available for antitrust bodies; ways of decision-making in expected merger. Also there are issues on efficacy of antimonopoly body decisions taking into account cost of monitoring, sanctioning of mergers participants, including influence on competition condition on relevant markets.
Key words: mergers, errors of I and II Types, antitrust control, monitoring and sanctioning.

Andrei Shastitko,  Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, Economic Faculty, Lomonosov Moscow State University;
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 117571, Russian Federation).
Are There Any Changes Brought by the Trade Law: An Analysis of Quantitative Data
The paper estimates the first consequences of the new Trade Law aimed at restoring a «balance of market power» in retailer-supplier relationships. Empirical data were collected in November-December 2010 from the grocery sector and home electronic appliances sector. 512 filled questionnaires were received from managers of retail chains and their suppliers in five Russia’s cities. The author argues that proclaimed goals of the Trade Law have not been achieved. Contract relationships have not changed for three quarters of retailers and suppliers. There are no significant effects on conditions of market entry, frequency of vertical restraints, and general estimations of the level of contract requirements.
Key words: retailing, contractual practices, trade law.

Vadim Radaev, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), National Research University — Higher School of Economics
(20, Myasnitskaya ul., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation).
Merger Remedies (Federal Antitrust Service and European Competition Commission compared)
The article examines the practice of pre-merger notification and merger remedies by Russian antimonopoly authority FAS (on the example of the largest mergers approved in 2006—2008) based on a comparison with the practice of the EU Competition Commission. Analysis of markets competition by FAS is shifted towards the straightforward assessment of structure (primarily — measurement of concentration). The structure of remedies is dominated by behavioral (conduct) requirements, many of them cannot be effective and some may impose on unreasonably high risks on market participants.
Kew words: antimonopoly policy, mergers, remedies, competition.

Svetlana Avdasheva, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), full professor.
Maria Kalinina, researcher.

National Research University — Higher School of Economics
(20, Miasnitskaya st., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation).
Ex Post Assessment of Mergers and Remedies as a Part of the Administrative Procedure
of Competition Authority
Article is devoted to the ex post assessment of effects of mergers in the activities of the Russian competition authority. Evaluated ex post effects till now was not carried out by Federal Antitrust Service, despite the fact that even in the international rankings of competition authorities, this practice is specifically taken into account as evidence of the validity of decisions. The paper offer recommendations for ex post evaluation as an organic part of the administrative procedures of merger approval in the framework of preliminary analysis, design solutions and remedies and assessment of compliance.
Key words: ex post evaluation of decisions of the authority, control over economic concentration, the antitrust authority, OECD.

Alexey Sushkevitch, Federal Antimonopoly Service
(11, Sadovaya Kudrinskaya ul., Moscow, 123995, Russian Federation).

Economic Policy and Health Care

On the Formation of the Line of Actual Problems as a Method of Priorities Selection
for Decision-Making in Health Care
For the analysis and ranking of health problems the authors developed a method of sequential filtering of the problems, which brings together expert approach and statistical methods of data processing. Using this method the authors processed statistical information, expert’s opinion and reports and materials of mass media. The method of sequential filtering included four filters: expert, sociological, public interest, financial. The maps of the problems according to their rating are presented in the paper.
Key words: health care, expert approach, method of sequential filtering.

Nelly Naigovzina, Dr. Sci. (Med.).
Vadim Filatov,  Dr. Sci. (Med.). 
Andrei Bessekeev, Cand. Sci. (Med.). 

Department of social development of the Government of Russian Federation
(2, Krasnopresnenskaya nab., Moscow, 103274, Russian Federation).

Sergey Tankov, Mikhail Chernenko, Ilya Sedakov,
Special Communications and Information Service of the Federal Protective Service of the Russian Federation
(10, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119331, Russian Federation).

Analytics and Forecast

Improving Tax Mechanism for State Support of Agricultural Production
The article deals with improving the tools of the tax mechanism for state support of agricultural production. Particular attention is paid to the system of measures aimed at creating a favorable tax climate for agricultural production and evaluation of the tax burden.
Key words: tax mechanism, tax regulations, special tax treatment, tax exemption, the tax burden.

Andrey Andreev, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Stolypin Volga Region Institute of Administration Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (23/25, Sobornaya ul., Saratov, 410031, Russian Federation).